45% — Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026
Leader: Before Sep 4, 2026 at 45% · Kalshi 45% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 00:26:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that market participants assign a 63% chance SpaceX AI releases Grok 4.7 by September 4, 2026—roughly five weeks from now. The relatively high probability reflects recent Grok release cadence, though the steep price decline across earlier deadlines (from 63¢ to just 11¢ for the August 21 window) suggests skepticism about near-term delivery. Market makers appear to expect either a late-August or early-September release rather than an imminent one. The key driver is SpaceX AI's historical release velocity; if Grok 4.7 is already in final testing or staged for release, the probability would likely hold or rise. Conversely, silence on the development timeline or competing priorities could lower it. The primary resolution point will be any official announcement from SpaceX or xAI regarding version 4.7 status, which would clarify whether the September 4 window is realistic or optimistic.

Key factors:
- Recent Grok release history and average time between major version updates establishes baseline expectations for development cycles
- Contract pricing structure shows declining conviction for earlier deadlines (11¢ for Aug 21 vs 63¢ for Sep 4), indicating market expects late August or early September timing rather than imminent release
- Any public statements from xAI leadership or SpaceX regarding Grok 4.7 development status, roadmap milestones, or testing phases would directly impact probability assessment
- Absence of official announcement or development news as August progresses would typically compress probabilities toward post-September outcomes
- Historical pattern of surprise drops versus announced release schedules affects how markets price pre-announcement uncertainty windows

Contracts:
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Sep 4, 2026?: Before Sep 4, 2026 — 45¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 99%)
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 31, 2026?: Before Aug 31, 2026 — 29¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%)
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 28, 2026?: Before Aug 28, 2026 — 21¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-20T19:20:53.068Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/grok-grok47
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20SpaceXAI%20release%20Grok%204.7%20before%20Aug%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev