42% — What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch
Leader: Bad and Boujee at 42% · Kalshi 42% · 14 contracts · $263 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that specific song titles will be confirmed on Grand Theft Auto VI's in-game radio stations at the game's launch. The 34% probability suggests moderate uncertainty about which artists and tracks will appear in the soundtrack. Key factors influencing this level include Rockstar Games' historical pattern of licensing major artists for GTA soundtracks and the amount of information publicly confirmed before launch. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be Rockstar's official soundtrack announcement, typically released weeks before or at the September 2025 launch date. Currently, minimal details about the radio playlist have been publicly disclosed, which supports the moderate probability. Once the full track list releases, this prediction would move toward near-certainty or resolve completely based on whether the specified songs appear.

Key factors:
- Rockstar Games' track record of licensing major commercial artists for GTA radio stations, which typically includes 50-100+ songs per game
- The timing and specificity of Rockstar's official soundtrack announcements relative to launch, which historically occurs 2-8 weeks before release
- Current scarcity of publicly disclosed song titles for GTA VI radio, limiting analyst confidence in specific tracks appearing
- Historical precedent that certain mega-artists frequently appear on GTA soundtracks versus emerging or niche artists with lower licensing probability
- Whether the prediction references specific song titles versus general artist categories, affecting the baseline probability

Contracts:
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Bad and Boujee — 42¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 9%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Pepas — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Rockstar — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Blinding Lights — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Sicko Mode — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Despacito — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: XO Tour Llif3 — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Mo Bamba — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.459Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gta6songs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20songs%20will%20be%20on%20the%20GTA%206%20radio%20at%20launch
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev