44% — What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch
Leader: Blinding Lights at 44% · Kalshi 44% · 14 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that specific song titles will be confirmed on Grand Theft Auto VI's in-game radio stations at the game's launch. The 34% probability suggests moderate uncertainty about which artists and tracks will appear in the soundtrack. Key factors influencing this level include Rockstar Games' historical pattern of licensing major artists for GTA soundtracks and the amount of information publicly confirmed before launch. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be Rockstar's official soundtrack announcement, typically released weeks before or at the September 2025 launch date. Currently, minimal details about the radio playlist have been publicly disclosed, which supports the moderate probability. Once the full track list releases, this prediction would move toward near-certainty or resolve completely based on whether the specified songs appear.

Key factors:
- Rockstar Games' track record of licensing major commercial artists for GTA radio stations, which typically includes 50-100+ songs per game
- The timing and specificity of Rockstar's official soundtrack announcements relative to launch, which historically occurs 2-8 weeks before release
- Current scarcity of publicly disclosed song titles for GTA VI radio, limiting analyst confidence in specific tracks appearing
- Historical precedent that certain mega-artists frequently appear on GTA soundtracks versus emerging or niche artists with lower licensing probability
- Whether the prediction references specific song titles versus general artist categories, affecting the baseline probability

Contracts:
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Blinding Lights — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Despacito — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Sicko Mode — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: God’s Plan — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Bad and Boujee — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Rockstar — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Pepas — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Mo Bamba — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 6 more

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gta6songs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20songs%20will%20be%20on%20the%20GTA%206%20radio%20at%20launch
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev