38% — What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch Leader: Pepas at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 14 contracts · $233 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 02:11:45 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that 'Bad and Boujee' will appear on GTA 6's launch radio stations. The track leads a competitive field of pop and hip-hop songs, each priced between 21¢ and 44¢, suggesting traders view multiple songs as plausible inclusions. The market is driven primarily by Rockstar Games' historical tendency to license major hits from the past decade and the timing of GTA 6's expected fall 2025 release. Uncertainty centers on which specific catalog additions Rockstar will secure licensing agreements for, as soundtrack composition depends on negotiations with artists, labels, and music rights holders. The main resolution event occurs upon game launch when the complete radio tracklist becomes public. Current pricing reflects that 'Bad and Boujee' holds a narrow edge over runner-up songs, but no track commands overwhelming confidence. Key factors: - 'Bad and Boujee' is a 2016 hit with demonstrated longevity; its inclusion would align with Rockstar's pattern of licensing established songs from 5-10 years prior - GTA radio stations typically feature 50-100+ licensed tracks across multiple stations; the single-song probability depends heavily on total soundtrack size - Licensing costs and label negotiations are private; unexpected disputes or budget constraints could shift which tracks make the final cut - The song's price (44¢) is only 1¢ above runner-up, indicating marginal differentiation and suggesting high uncertainty among traders - GTA 6 launch date confirmation and any pre-release soundtrack announcements would significantly compress probabilities on covered tracks Contracts: - What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Pepas — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Sicko Mode — 33¢ Kalshi $129 (weight 55%) - What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Look at Me! — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Mo Bamba — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: As It Was — 29¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 6%) - What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Blinding Lights — 28¢ Kalshi $73 (weight 31%) - What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Despacito — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Bad and Boujee — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T00:20:51.745Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gta6songs Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20songs%20will%20be%20on%20the%20GTA%206%20radio%20at%20launch Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev