69% — Who will win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election
Leader: Therese Terlaje at 69% · Kalshi 69% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 14:34:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Josh Tenorio is priced at 33% to win Guam's 2026 gubernatorial election, meaning the market assigns roughly one-in-three odds to his victory. The relatively even distribution across five candidates—with Tenorio leading but Therese Terlaje at 25% and others between 8–14%—suggests high uncertainty about the outcome. Guam's gubernatorial elections are shaped by local economic issues, historical voting patterns, and candidate appeal, particularly around issues like military buildup, tourism, and fiscal management. The election itself will occur in November 2026, about four months from now. Major campaign developments, endorsements, or shifts in candidate viability could narrow or widen the gap between frontrunners. Current trading volume is minimal except on the Agustin contract, indicating low overall market engagement so far.

Key factors:
- Josh Tenorio leads at 33% but no candidate exceeds 50%, indicating fragmented support and material uncertainty
- Therese Terlaje is only 8 percentage points behind the leader at 25%, representing a strong alternative, while three other candidates split remaining probability
- The election date (November 2026) is approximately four months away, leaving substantial time for campaign dynamics, debates, or endorsements to shift probabilities
- Trading volume is near-zero on four of five contracts, suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect true underlying consensus
- Guam's small electorate and high participation by local political networks mean insider polling or community endorsements could prove disproportionately influential relative to broader patterns

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?: Therese Terlaje — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Who will win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?: Tony Ada — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/guamgov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20Guam%20gubernatorial%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev