18% — Gulf State military action against Iran by... Kalshi 12% · Polymarket 21% · 13 contracts · $175K volume · high confidence Updated 2026-06-08 04:33:02 UTC Cross-venue gap: 9pp (Polymarket higher) Why this matters: This probability represents the assessed likelihood that a Gulf State—such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE—will conduct military action against Iran by a specified date. The 19% aggregate probability reflects moderate but non-negligible market concern about escalation in the region. The estimate is shaped by two primary drivers: first, the current state of US-Iran tensions and whether diplomatic or military pressure intensifies; second, the degree to which Gulf States perceive Iranian nuclear advancement or regional proxy activity as threatening enough to warrant direct action. The cross-venue gap suggests different risk assessments between markets. Key upcoming catalysts include developments in Iran's nuclear program, any major incidents involving Iranian proxies, and shifts in US policy toward Iran following the 2026 midterm elections. The related contracts on Israel-Yemen action and Iranian regime change reflect broader regional instability concerns that could either trigger or prevent Gulf military escalation. Key factors: - Current US diplomatic stance and military posture toward Iran, which directly influences Gulf State confidence in backing or conducting independent action - Status of Iran's nuclear program development and any IAEA reporting on uranium enrichment levels or weapons capability progress - Recent Iranian proxy activity in the region—including Houthi attacks, Iraqi militia operations, or other asymmetric threats that might provoke direct Gulf response - Internal political stability of potential actor states (Saudi Arabia, UAE) and leadership appetite for military commitment versus economic priorities - Historical patterns showing Gulf States typically act with tacit or explicit US support; absence of this backing would substantially reduce action probability Contracts: - US military action against Cuba by...?: December 31 — 39¢ Polymarket $63K (weight 36%) - Israel military action against Yemen by...?: June 30 — 25¢ Polymarket $48K (weight 28%) - Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?: Reza Pahlavi — 6¢ Kalshi $44K (weight 25%) - Iran leader end of 2026?: No Head of State — 4¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 9%) - Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4, 2026 — 28¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 1%) - Israel military action against Damascus by...?: June 30 — 19¢ Polymarket $869 (weight 0%) - How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?: 10 — 16¢ Polymarket $568 (weight 0%) - Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?: Before 2027 — 8¢ Kalshi $452 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:07.081Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gulf-state-military-action-against-iran Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Gulf%20State%20military%20action%20against%20Iran%20by... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev