74% — Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.13 by Dec 31
Leader: Above $3.23 at 74% · Kalshi 74% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 05:23:41 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 72% probability that NVIDIA H100 SXM GPU compute rental prices will exceed $2.03 per hour by year-end 2026. The pricing reflects market expectations about GPU supply dynamics and demand for high-end compute capacity. Upward pressure would come from sustained AI workload demand outpacing H100 availability, while downward pressure would result from increased supply (newer GPU generations, competing products) or softening enterprise demand. Key resolution points include quarterly cloud provider earnings announcements and any major AI infrastructure capacity expansions announced through December. The wide gap between the highest-probability outcome ($2.03) and lower thresholds ($1.13, $1.28) suggests traders expect meaningful price stability rather than collapse, though uncertainty increases sharply above $2.93 per hour.

Key factors:
- Current H100 rental pricing on major cloud platforms relative to the $2.03 threshold and pricing trends over the past 6-12 months
- Announced GPU supply increases from cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) and competitive alternatives (H200, L40S) entering the market through year-end
- Enterprise AI adoption trends and GPU utilization rates reported in earnings calls and infrastructure investment announcements
- Release schedules for NVIDIA's next-generation compute GPUs and their market availability and pricing
- Cryptocurrency mining and other compute-intensive workload demand fluctuations affecting spare capacity and pricing pressure

Contracts:
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.23 by Dec 31?: Above $3.23 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.38 by Dec 31?: Above $3.38 — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.53 by Dec 31?: Above $3.53 — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.68 by Dec 31?: Above $3.68 — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.83 by Dec 31?: Above $3.83 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.98 by Dec 31?: Above $3.98 — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T05:20:52.919Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "74% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/h100max
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20H100%20SXM%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%241.13%20by%20Dec%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev