92% — Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $4.00 in August 2026 Leader: Above $2.00 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-25 14:39:50 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This measure indicates a 79% probability that NVIDIA's H100 GPU compute price will average above $2.00 per unit in August 2026, with much lower confidence (4%) in prices exceeding $4.00 that month. The high probability of staying above $2.00 reflects expectations that demand and supply dynamics will sustain baseline pricing, though the steep probability cliff at higher thresholds suggests limited consensus on significant price appreciation. Key drivers include H100 supply-demand balance, competition from newer GPU architectures, and enterprise purchasing patterns over the next six weeks. August 2026 represents the near-term resolution point; longer-dated contracts (October, December) trade at lower probabilities for higher price thresholds, suggesting traders expect gradual price stabilization or decline rather than sustained escalation. Key factors: - NVIDIA H100 spot market pricing as of late June 2026 and typical pricing ranges for enterprise GPU compute rental - Announced GPU supply releases and competitive products entering the market through August 2026 - Historical volatility of enterprise GPU pricing and seasonal demand patterns for cloud compute - Correlation between H100 price movements and broader AI infrastructure spending cycles - Contract structure shows 75-percentage-point probability gap between $2.00 and $4.00 thresholds, indicating market skepticism of rapid price acceleration Contracts: - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.00 in October 2026?: Above $2.00 — 92¢ Kalshi $165 (weight 7%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.25 in September 2026?: Above $2.25 — 92¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 4%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.25 in October 2026?: Above $2.25 — 86¢ Kalshi $700 (weight 29%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.00 in November 2026?: Above $2.00 — 86¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 1%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.00 in January 2027?: Above $2.00 — 84¢ Kalshi $373 (weight 15%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.25 in November 2026?: Above $2.25 — 81¢ Kalshi $124 (weight 5%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.25 in December 2026?: Above $2.25 — 79¢ Kalshi $545 (weight 23%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $2.00 in February 2027?: Above $2.00 — 78¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 1%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-25T14:20:51.145Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/h100ms Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20monthly%20average%20compute%20price%20of%20NVIDIA's%20H100%20be%20above%20%244.00%20in%20August%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev