97% — Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.43 by Jun 30
Leader: Above $1.63 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 20 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:33:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently assess a 97% probability that NVIDIA H100 SXM compute pricing will remain above $1.73 per hour by June 30, 2026, based on trading contracts across multiple price thresholds. The high confidence reflects expectations that near-term pricing floors will hold, though higher price brackets ($2.43, $2.73) show notably lower confidence (around 86-88%), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about upward pressure. Key drivers include current GPU supply dynamics, enterprise demand for AI compute capacity, and competitive offerings from alternative providers. The resolution depends on official pricing data from cloud providers as of June 30, providing a concrete measurement point roughly one month away. Contract volume concentrates around the $1.73–$2.03 range, indicating market consensus clusters around lower-to-mid price expectations rather than premium tiers.

Key factors:
- Current H100 pricing across major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) relative to the $1.73–$2.43 thresholds, which can shift with supply changes or competitive repricing
- GPU supply availability and competing demand for H100s versus alternative accelerators (A100, H200, custom TPUs) affecting effective market rates
- Enterprise AI workload growth and willingness to pay premium rates for established NVIDIA hardware versus newer alternatives
- Contract price distribution shows 97% confidence only at $1.73 but drops to ~86% at $2.43, indicating market expects prices to remain in the $1.73–$2.23 band rather than surge further
- Time-to-resolution (33 days) leaves room for spot market volatility, bulk contract negotiations, or supply disruptions that could drive prices up or down

Contracts:
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.63 by Jun 30?: Above $1.63 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.73 by Jun 30?: Above $1.73 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.83 by Jun 30?: Above $1.83 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.03 by Jun 30?: Above $2.03 — 91¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.13 by Jun 30?: Above $2.13 — 90¢ Kalshi $197 (weight 15%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.93 by Jun 30?: Above $1.93 — 90¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 8%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.43 by Jun 30?: Above $2.43 — 88¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 1%)
- Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.23 by Jun 30?: Above $2.23 — 87¢ Kalshi $103 (weight 8%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.265Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/h100q
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20H100%20SXM%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%242.43%20by%20Jun%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev