97% — Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07
Leader: Above $2.00 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 16 contracts · $297 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:03:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question asks whether NVIDIA H100 cloud compute will cost more than $2 per hour on August 7, 2026. The 92% probability reflects strong market confidence that prices will remain above this threshold. GPU compute pricing has historically been sticky, with prices typically declining gradually rather than sharply. The main factors that could shift this probability are changes in cloud provider pricing strategies, shifts in H100 supply relative to demand, and competitive pressures from newer GPU architectures. The July dates in related contracts suggest traders are tracking early signals of price movements, with the outcome becoming clearer as August approaches and providers finalize their quarterly pricing.

Key factors:
- H100 rental rates have remained relatively stable within the $2-3.50/hour range based on recent cloud provider offerings
- Supply constraints or demand spikes could pressure prices upward, while new GPU releases (like H200 or competitors) could create downward pricing pressure
- Cloud providers typically adjust pricing in discrete steps rather than continuously, making intermediate thresholds predictive of August outcomes
- The 33¢ price on the $2.25 threshold (56 days out) versus 92¢ on the $2.00 threshold suggests substantial confidence in prices staying above $2
- Historical precedent shows legacy GPU pricing rarely collapses below established baselines within short timeframes, supporting the high probability

Contracts:
- Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $2.00 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.25 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $2.25 — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.25 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $2.25 — 82¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 7%)
- Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $2.00 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.25 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $2.25 — 64¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $2.50 — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2.75 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $2.75 — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $3.00 — 21¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 32%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-09T20:20:50.557Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/h100ws
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20NVIDIA%20H100%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%242%20at%204%20PM%20ET%20on%20Aug%2007
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev