97% — Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $0.99 by Dec 31
Leader: Above $0.99 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 20 contracts · $685 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects an estimated 97% probability that NVIDIA's H200 GPU will cost more than $0.99 per compute hour by year-end 2026. The high probability suggests traders expect H200 pricing to remain well above this threshold, with secondary markets pricing much higher price points ($5-6+ per hour) at 31-43% odds. The core drivers appear to be current H200 supply constraints and enterprise demand, which would need to shift dramatically for prices to fall below $0.99. The key uncertainty centers on whether expanded GPU supply from competing vendors or macroeconomic demand destruction could force significant price compression within the next seven months. Any major announcements regarding new competitive offerings, significant cloud provider pricing changes, or shifts in enterprise AI spending could move these probabilities.

Key factors:
- Current H200 market pricing and published cloud provider rates relative to the $0.99 threshold
- Supply trajectory for H200 units and competitive GPU availability through December 2026
- Enterprise AI demand levels and willingness to pay for premium compute resources
- Price competition from alternative GPU vendors and their market share gains
- Historical precedent for GPU pricing trends during equivalent market conditions

Contracts:
- Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $0.99 by Dec 31?: Above $0.99 — 97¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 3%)
- Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.29 by Dec 31?: Above $1.29 — 96¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 3%)
- Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.59 by Dec 31?: Above $1.59 — 90¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%)
- Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.89 by Dec 31?: Above $1.89 — 75¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 2%)
- Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.49 by Dec 31?: Above $2.49 — 74¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 5%)
- Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.19 by Dec 31?: Above $2.19 — 73¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 8%)
- Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.79 by Dec 31?: Above $2.79 — 71¢ Kalshi $57 (weight 8%)
- Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.09 by Dec 31?: Above $3.09 — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.652Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/h200max
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20H200%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%240.99%20by%20Dec%2031
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev