97% — Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in May 2027 Leader: Above $2.50 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 20 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 09:33:39 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 96% probability that NVIDIA's H200 chip will trade at an average monthly compute price above $5.00 in May 2027. The high confidence reflects current pricing trends and existing demand patterns, though it assumes relatively stable market conditions over the next 11 months. Prices could move lower if GPU oversupply emerges, new competing chips significantly undercut H200 pricing, or cryptocurrency mining demand softens. Conversely, prices could remain elevated if enterprise AI adoption accelerates faster than supply can accommodate. The May 2027 resolution depends on actual trading data from that month, making near-term pricing momentum and supply-chain announcements key drivers of market sentiment. Key factors: - Current H200 spot pricing and historical monthly average volatility will establish a baseline for extrapolating to May 2027 - Announced production capacity expansions by NVIDIA or its foundry partners could increase supply and pressure prices downward - Competitive launches of alternative high-compute chips (AMD MI series, Intel, others) may fragment demand and erode H200 pricing power - Enterprise and AI datacenter spending patterns through late 2026 and early 2027 will determine whether demand sustains current price levels - Cryptocurrency mining resurgence or collapse would act as a secondary demand shock with material price impact Contracts: - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in June 2026?: Above $2.50 — 97¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in August 2026?: Above $1.50 — 95¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $3.50 in June 2026?: Above $3.50 — 88¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in October 2026?: Above $1.50 — 87¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in December 2026?: Above $1.50 — 82¢ Kalshi $863 (weight 6%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in January 2027?: Above $1.50 — 81¢ Kalshi $734 (weight 5%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in March 2027?: Above $1.50 — 77¢ Kalshi $635 (weight 5%) - Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $2.50 in December 2026?: Above $2.50 — 66¢ Kalshi $230 (weight 2%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T09:20:17.759Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/h200ms Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20monthly%20average%20compute%20price%20of%20NVIDIA's%20H200%20be%20above%20%245.00%20in%20May%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev