85% — Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03 Leader: Above $2.50 at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 15 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 09:33:38 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates a 68% probability that NVIDIA H200 compute-per-hour pricing will exceed $3.00 by July 3, 2026. The market reflects uncertainty around both near-term pricing strategy and actual H200 availability and demand. Cloud providers typically adjust GPU rental rates based on supply constraints, manufacturing delays, and competitive pressure from alternative accelerators. The contract resolves in about two weeks, leaving limited time for major shifts unless NVIDIA announces significant price changes, supply disruptions materialize, or competing offerings reshape the rental market. Current low trading volume (zero 24-hour volume on Kalshi) suggests sparse market participants, so prices may not reflect full information about cloud provider procurement plans or H200 deployment timelines. Key factors: - Current H200 spot-market rental rates and their relationship to the $3.00 threshold as of mid-June 2026 - NVIDIA's official pricing communications or cloud provider rate cards published before July 3 - Supply availability of H200 chips relative to demand, which directly influences rental pricing pressure - Competitive pricing from alternative accelerators (A100, H100, or other offerings) that may anchor H200 rates - Trading volume and contract prices on longer-dated H200 pricing contracts (July 10, July 17) that reveal market expectations for sustained pricing levels Contracts: - Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $2.50 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%) - Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $2.50 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%) - Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $2.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $2.50 — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%) - Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $3.00 — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%) - Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $3.00 — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%) - Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $3.00 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%) - Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $3.50 — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%) - Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10?: Above $3.50 — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T09:20:17.897Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/h200ws Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20NVIDIA%20H200%20compute%20per%20hour%20price%20be%20above%20%243%20at%204%20PM%20ET%20on%20Jul%2003 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev