6% — Will Hamas agree to disarm by...
Polymarket 6% · 1 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 15:39:21 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Hamas will agree to fully disarm by a specified date. The current 23% level suggests traders view disarmament as unlikely within the timeframe, reflecting Hamas's historical resistance to surrendering military capabilities and the broader geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Key factors driving the assessment include the organization's stated commitment to armed struggle, the absence of credible peace negotiations that would mandate disarmament, and the fragmented nature of Palestinian governance. The main catalyst would be any major breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations or a significant shift in regional power dynamics. The 13-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement about baseline assumptions, with Kalshi traders pricing in modestly higher probability than Polymarket participants.

Key factors:
- Hamas's official charter and repeated public statements rejecting disarmament as a precondition for negotiations
- Current state of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and whether they include binding disarmament clauses
- Regional military balance and whether external actors (Iran, Gulf states) would pressure or support disarmament
- Historical precedent: whether any Palestinian armed group has voluntarily agreed to full disarmament in comparable circumstances
- Timeline specificity: the resolution date matters significantly—longer timeframes increase probability of political change

Contracts:
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?: June 30, 2026 — 6¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hamas-agree-to-disarm
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Hamas%20agree%20to%20disarm%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev