33% — Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election
Kalshi 33% · 3 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 12:13:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents a 32% estimated chance that Jeff Beattie wins the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election in 2026. The relatively low probability reflects that other candidates—particularly Monique Taylor—currently command higher odds in prediction markets. Movement in this contract would likely depend on campaign dynamics, polling data if released, endorsements, and the candidate field's final composition. The by-election itself serves as the decisive catalyst: once voting concludes and results are official, this contract resolves to either 100 cents or 0 cents.

Key factors:
- Monique Taylor is trading at 62 cents, indicating markets view her as the front-runner for this seat
- Market trading volume is very low (18-26 dollars per contract in 24h), suggesting limited confidence in pricing accuracy or minimal information flow
- No public polling or recent campaign news about the by-election race has been identified, leaving prices potentially volatile if information emerges
- Hamilton East-Stoney Creek's historical voting patterns and incumbent party performance would structurally favor or disadvantage candidates
- The final candidate slate has not been determined; changes to who runs would materially affect Beattie's winning probability

Contracts:
- Will Monique Taylor win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election?: Monique Taylor — 40¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 48%)
- Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election?: Jeff Beattie — 55¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 41%)
- Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election?: Heino Doessing — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-04T19:21:45.676Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hamstoneyby
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jeff%20Beattie%20win%20the%202026%20Hamilton%20East-Stoney%20Creek%20provincial%20by-election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev