27% — Will SPD win the 2026 Hannover mayoral election Kalshi 27% · 4 contracts · $164 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 07:08:34 UTC Why this matters: The SPD currently has an 19% chance of winning the 2026 Hannover mayoral election, meaning markets assess it as an unlikely but possible outcome. The probability reflects that the Green Party leads at 46%, with SPD second at 36%, while smaller parties (Die Linke, AfD, CDU) trail significantly. SPD's position depends on whether it can consolidate left-leaning and centrist voters, or whether it loses support to Greens or coalition dynamics shift. The outcome will be determined by the October 2026 election itself, but candidate announcements, local campaign visibility, and polling data in the months preceding the vote could shift expectations. Current low trading volume across contracts suggests limited market activity and potential for price movement as the election approaches and more information becomes available. Key factors: - Green Party holds 46% implied probability versus SPD's 36%, indicating markets currently favor Greens as frontrunner - SPD and Greens together represent 82% of total implied probability, suggesting the race is concentrated between two parties - Trading volume across all five contracts is low (under $10 combined daily volume), indicating thin markets susceptible to repricing - Die Linke, AfD, and CDU each under 6% suggests fragmentation among right-wing and far-left alternatives - October 2026 election date is the single resolution catalyst; interim data from candidate nominations, rallies, or regional polling could move prices significantly before then Contracts: - Will Greens win the 2026 Hannover mayoral election?: Greens — 94¢ Kalshi $127 (weight 77%) - Will AfD win the 2026 Hannover mayoral election?: AfD — 5¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 23%) - Will Die Linke win the 2026 Hannover mayoral election?: Die Linke — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will CDU win the 2026 Hannover mayoral election?: CDU — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.755Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hannovermayor Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20SPD%20win%20the%202026%20Hannover%20mayoral%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev