16% — Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Oct 1, 2026
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 16% · Kalshi 16% · 4 contracts · $61 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This measures the likelihood that Natalie Harp will publicly announce her departure from her White House roles before October 1, 2026—roughly 5 weeks from now. The 5% price reflects the relatively short timeframe and the stability typical of White House staffing positions absent major crises or scandals. The contract prices show traders assign higher probability to a departure announcement by January 1, 2027 (16%), suggesting most expect any exit would occur later in the year if it occurs at all. Key drivers include whether any significant political developments trigger staff changes, performance-related decisions, or personal circumstances affecting her tenure. The primary catalyst would be any official statement from the White House, Harp herself, or credible reporting indicating imminent departure before the October deadline.

Key factors:
- White House staff turnover rates and precedent for mid-term departures in similar positions
- Any public statements or reporting about Harp's job satisfaction, health, or personal circumstances
- Political developments or crises that typically prompt staff changes
- The contract price differential between the October 1 outcome (5¢) and January 1 outcome (16¢) indicates market consensus favors a later departure window if one occurs
- Absence of any recent news or speculation about potential departure as of late August 2026

Contracts:
- Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 16¢ Kalshi $61 (weight 100%)
- Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:47.567Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/harpannounceout-26aug
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Natalie%20Harp%20announce%20their%20departure%20as%20Special%20Assistant%20and%20Executive%20Assistant%20to%20the%20President%20before%20Oct%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev