77% — Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 600000000 in fiscal year 2026
Leader: Above 600 million at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 9 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 12:14:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 50% probability that Harvard University's federal sponsored research revenue will exceed $600 million in fiscal year 2026. Federal research funding forms a core part of Harvard's budget, making this metric significant for assessing the institution's research capacity and competitiveness. The probability reflects uncertainty around federal appropriations levels, competition for grants among research institutions, and Harvard's success in securing awards across its schools and centers. Key drivers include overall federal spending priorities—particularly for biomedical, physics, and climate research where Harvard is active—and shifts in grant distribution patterns. The fiscal year 2026 results will become available through Harvard's official financial disclosures, likely in late 2026 or early 2027, providing the definitive outcome. Current pricing suggests meaningful probability mass across outcomes ranging from below $600 million to above $800 million, indicating genuine uncertainty about the final figure.

Key factors:
- Harvard's federal sponsored revenue in FY2025 and historical trend data—whether recent years show growth or decline trajectories
- Total federal R&D appropriations for FY2026 and allocation percentages to research universities versus other institutions
- Harvard's competitive positioning for major grants in NIH, NSF, and DOD funding cycles during the relevant fiscal year
- Changes in federal funding mechanisms or grant award patterns that could systematically affect Harvard's share relative to peer institutions
- Harvard's official financial statements or compliance reports disclosing federal sponsored revenue for FY2026 when filed

Contracts:
- Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 600000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 600 million — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 650000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 650 million — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 700000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 700 million — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 750000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 750 million — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 800000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 800 million — 30¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 33%)
- Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 850000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 850 million — 23¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%)
- Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 900000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 900 million — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 19%)
- Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 950000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 950 million — 7¢ Kalshi $510 (weight 6%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:45.163Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/harvardfedrev
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Harvard's%20federal%20sponsored%20revenue%20be%20above%20600000000%20in%20fiscal%20year%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev