31% — Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 31% · Kalshi 31% · 3 contracts · $337 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 01:41:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
A 29% probability indicates traders assess it as unlikely (but not remote) that the House passes a budget resolution by August 1, 2026. The timeline matters: only ~7 weeks remain, and budget processes typically require negotiation across party lines and procedural time. The market's higher confidence in passage by January 2027 (59%) suggests traders expect a resolution but anticipate delays past the August deadline. Key drivers include whether Congress prioritizes budget work before the August recess and whether partisan disagreements block early passage. The immediate catalyst is whether leadership schedules a budget vote before late July; any such announcement would shift probabilities significantly based on the vote outlook.

Key factors:
- As of June 11, 2026, only 51 days remain until August 1—a compressed window for budget negotiations and floor votes
- Market prices on later deadlines (October at 46¢, January at 59¢) are substantially higher, indicating traders expect passage but anticipate missing the August target
- Congressional recesses and summer schedules historically reduce legislative productivity; the August recess typically begins in early-to-mid August
- Partisan budget negotiations often extend timelines; a simple majority requirement could accelerate passage if one party controls both chambers
- No scheduled budget vote announcement or leadership statement by mid-June would be observable evidence affecting near-term probability shifts

Contracts:
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 12¢ Kalshi $337 (weight 100%)
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.871Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hbudgetres-26jun
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20budget%20resolution%20passed%20the%20House%20before%20Aug%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev