93% — Will The Home Depot, Inc. report above 394 million Customer Transactions in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 390 million at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 12 contracts · $40 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 16:23:33 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This measures whether The Home Depot will report more than 394 million customer transactions in Q1 2026. The 76% probability on the lower threshold (above 388 million) versus 40% on the 394 million level reflects uncertainty about transaction volume trends in the first quarter. Key drivers include holiday season carryover effects, housing market activity, and consumer spending patterns in early 2026. The market is pricing in a meaningful probability of strong performance but with notable downside risk at higher thresholds. Resolution depends on The Home Depot's official Q1 2026 earnings report, typically released in late May or early June 2026, when management discloses exact customer transaction counts. Key factors: - Historical quarterly transaction trends show whether Q1 2026 fits seasonal patterns or represents a deviation from prior-year performance - Housing market conditions and consumer discretionary spending in January-March 2026 directly influence foot traffic and checkout frequency - The spread between contract prices (40% at 394M vs 76% at 388M) indicates market consensus expects results near 390-392 million, with 394M considered a stronger outcome - Contract volume is relatively light ($33-64K in 24h volume), suggesting limited institutional positioning and potential for repricing on new information - Q1 typically carries seasonal factors that may differ from other quarters, affecting whether year-over-year growth comparisons are relevant to the specific threshold Contracts: - Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 390 million customer transactions in Q2 2026?: Above 390 million — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 400 million customer transactions in Q2 2026?: Above 400 million — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 410 million customer transactions in Q2 2026?: Above 410 million — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 380 million customer transactions in Q3 2026?: Above 380 million — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 420 million customer transactions in Q2 2026?: Above 420 million — 90¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 3%) - Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 430 million customer transactions in Q2 2026?: Above 430 million — 86¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 55%) - Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 440 million customer transactions in Q2 2026?: Above 440 million — 84¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 28%) - Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 385 million customer transactions in Q3 2026?: Above 385 million — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.063Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20The%20Home%20Depot%2C%20Inc.%20report%20above%20394%20million%20Customer%20Transactions%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev