82% — Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 100
Leader: Above 92 at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 11 contracts · $10 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 19:23:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that markets assess a roughly even chance that Home Depot's monthly credit card spending will exceed $100 in August 2026. The current market pricing clusters tightly around $92-95 thresholds, with notably lower conviction above $100, suggesting modest uncertainty about whether spending reaches that higher level. Seasonal factors, consumer spending patterns, and housing market activity through August would be primary drivers. The resolution depends on Home Depot's reported credit card transaction data for the month, typically disclosed in quarterly or monthly financial reports. Historical spending trends, back-to-school shopping timing in late August, and any major economic shifts affecting retail traffic will influence the final outcome.

Key factors:
- Market pricing shows a 51% probability at the $92 threshold but only 3% at the $100 threshold, indicating steep skepticism of higher spending levels
- August includes back-to-school and late-summer home improvement seasons, which typically drive consumer spending at home improvement retailers
- No recent 24-hour trading volume on any contract suggests thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery on this specific outcome
- Historical Home Depot credit card spending patterns and year-over-year comparisons for August would establish baseline expectations for 2026
- Resolution depends on Home Depot's official reporting methodology and timing for credit card transaction data disclosure

Contracts:
- Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 92 ?: Above 92 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 93 ?: Above 93 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 94 ?: Above 94 — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 95 ?: Above 95 — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 96 ?: Above 96 — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 97 ?: Above 97 — 46¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 100%)
- Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 98 ?: Above 98 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Home Depot Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 99 ?: Above 99 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:50.224Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hdcc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Home%20Depot%20Monthly%20Credit%20Card%20Spend%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20100
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev