11% — Who will win Heisman Trophy Leader: CJ Carr at 11% · Kalshi 11% · 10 contracts · $54K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 01:25:56 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: The 12% probability indicates that Caleb Carr has a 1-in-8 chance of winning the 2026 Heisman Trophy based on current market pricing. This reflects moderate confidence among bettors, with Darian Mensah (11%) and other contenders clustered nearby, suggesting a competitive field without a clear favorite. The probability is primarily driven by Carr's current performance metrics and perceived trajectory relative to other top college football players. Key factors pushing the probability up or down include: his statistical performance through the remainder of the season, injuries to him or competing contenders, and media/voting sentiment as the award season approaches. The most significant catalyst will be the actual on-field performance during the remainder of the 2026 college football season, which directly influences both his candidacy strength and relative positioning against competitors. Key factors: - Darian Mensah is the current leader at 11%, suggesting the market views multiple candidates as near-equivalent rather than favoring any single player decisively - 24-hour trading volume of $20,950 for Mensah versus lower volumes for other candidates indicates genuine liquidity and consistent market participation in this contract - The top five candidates span 11¢ to 3¢, indicating significant uncertainty and a distributed field rather than consensus around any single player - Contract pricing reflects pre-season or early-season period; actual game performance over the next several months will be the primary driver of probability shifts - Close clustering between the 12% leader and 11% runner-up suggests marginal differentiation in current assessment, making either modest outperformance or injury a potential catalyst for substantial repricing Contracts: - Who will win Heisman Trophy?: CJ Carr — 11¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%) - Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Arch Manning — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 3%) - Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Darian Mensah — 7¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 7%) - Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Julian Sayin — 6¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 15%) - Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Jeremiah Smith — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 5%) - Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Trinidad Chambliss — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%) - Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Dante Moore — 5¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 32%) - Who will win Heisman Trophy?: John Mateer — 3¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 17%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T01:20:49.244Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/heisman Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Heisman%20Trophy Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev