12% — Who will win Heisman Trophy
Leader: CJ Carr at 12% · Kalshi 12% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 12% probability indicates that markets assess this candidate as having a meaningful but not dominant chance of winning the Heisman Trophy in 2026. The Heisman is awarded to the most outstanding college football player each December, with winner selection heavily influenced by regular-season performance, voting patterns favoring certain positions (typically quarterback or running back), and late-season momentum. The probability could shift significantly based on game performance throughout the fall 2026 season, as strong statistical seasons or high-profile victories tend to move odds substantially. The award typically sees final votes cast in early December following the conclusion of the college football regular season, meaning most price discovery will occur from September through November as on-field performance data accumulates. Contract volume of $4,286 in 24-hour trading suggests moderate market interest in this outcome relative to other Heisman possibilities.

Key factors:
- Regular-season performance statistics (passing/rushing yards, touchdowns, efficiency metrics) from September-November 2026 will directly influence final voting
- Historical Heisman voting favors specific positions; quarterback winners comprise roughly 50% of recent winners, affecting positional candidates' chances
- Head-to-head performance in high-profile conference games and bowl visibility typically drives late-season probability shifts
- The final Heisman vote occurs in December following the regular season conclusion, meaning current odds reflect preseason assessment before any game data
- Competitor field composition and relative strength of competing candidates' performances will determine whether this candidate's odds contract or expand

Contracts:
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: CJ Carr — 12¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 3%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Arch Manning — 11¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 46%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Darian Mensah — 7¢ Kalshi $808 (weight 24%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Dante Moore — 6¢ Kalshi $462 (weight 14%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Julian Sayin — 6¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 4%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Trinidad Chambliss — 6¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 1%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Jeremiah Smith — 5¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Jayden Maiava — 3¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 7%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/heisman
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Heisman%20Trophy
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev