12% — Who will win Heisman Trophy
Leader: CJ Carr at 12% · Kalshi 12% · 7 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 12% probability indicates that markets assess this candidate as having a meaningful but not dominant chance of winning the Heisman Trophy in 2026. The Heisman is awarded to the most outstanding college football player each December, with winner selection heavily influenced by regular-season performance, voting patterns favoring certain positions (typically quarterback or running back), and late-season momentum. The probability could shift significantly based on game performance throughout the fall 2026 season, as strong statistical seasons or high-profile victories tend to move odds substantially. The award typically sees final votes cast in early December following the conclusion of the college football regular season, meaning most price discovery will occur from September through November as on-field performance data accumulates. Contract volume of $4,286 in 24-hour trading suggests moderate market interest in this outcome relative to other Heisman possibilities.

Key factors:
- Regular-season performance statistics (passing/rushing yards, touchdowns, efficiency metrics) from September-November 2026 will directly influence final voting
- Historical Heisman voting favors specific positions; quarterback winners comprise roughly 50% of recent winners, affecting positional candidates' chances
- Head-to-head performance in high-profile conference games and bowl visibility typically drives late-season probability shifts
- The final Heisman vote occurs in December following the regular season conclusion, meaning current odds reflect preseason assessment before any game data
- Competitor field composition and relative strength of competing candidates' performances will determine whether this candidate's odds contract or expand

Contracts:
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: CJ Carr — 12¢ Kalshi $164 (weight 2%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Arch Manning — 11¢ Kalshi $375 (weight 4%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Trinidad Chambliss — 6¢ Kalshi $636 (weight 8%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Julian Sayin — 6¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 1%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Dante Moore — 5¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 73%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Josh Hoover — 5¢ Kalshi $603 (weight 7%)
- Who will win Heisman Trophy?: Jeremiah Smith — 3¢ Kalshi $353 (weight 4%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.305Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/heisman
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Heisman%20Trophy
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev