16% — Will Josh Hoover be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy Kalshi 16% · 16 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 23:15:18 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects a 10% chance that Josh Hoover will be named as one of the five finalists for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. Hoover's current odds position him well below other quarterback prospects like CJ Carr (22%) and Arch Manning (17%), suggesting market participants view him as less likely to achieve finalist status this season. The Heisman finalist selection, determined by voting in early December, depends primarily on statistical performance through the regular season, particularly yards, touchdowns, and win-loss record. Additional factors include media narrative momentum, voting patterns favoring certain positions, and how Hoover's team's competitive success influences his individual recognition. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the conclusion of the college football regular season in late November, after which voting determines the five finalists announced in early December. Key factors: - Comparative QB market pricing shows Hoover at 10% versus Carr at 22% and Manning at 17%, indicating relative performance expectations or perceived draft potential differ significantly - Heisman voting historically favors players from winning teams and those with elite statistical production (typically 3,500+ passing yards or 1,500+ rushing yards for skill position players) - Hoover's team's win-loss record and conference strength will materially impact his finalist candidacy regardless of individual statistics - Media and analyst narrative about Hoover's development trajectory and NFL draft stock may influence voting patterns beyond on-field performance metrics - Regular season performance metrics through November will be the primary determinant, with no intermediate data releases that typically shift Heisman odds before voting Contracts: - Will Jeremiah Smith be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy?: Jeremiah Smith — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Julian Sayin be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy?: Julian Sayin — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Gunner Stockton be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy?: Gunner Stockton — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Malachi Toney be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy?: Malachi Toney — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Arch Manning be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy?: Arch Manning — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Trinidad Chambliss be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy?: Trinidad Chambliss — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy?: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will Kewan Lacy be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy?: Kewan Lacy — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T21:20:57.078Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/heismanfinalist Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Josh%20Hoover%20be%20selected%20as%20a%20finalist%20for%20the%202026%20Heisman%20Trophy Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev