33% — Will Maxwell Frazier be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district
Kalshi 33% · 3 contracts · $175 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:48 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated chance that Maxwell Frazier will win the Democratic primary for Hawaii's 1st congressional district. The 32% probability reflects a competitive but uncertain race, with market data showing Ed Case as the front-runner at 66%, while Frazier and Jarrett Keohokalole represent alternative candidates. The current assessment suggests Frazier is positioned as a meaningful challenger but faces significant headwinds against Case's established support. The race will be resolved through the Democratic primary election, where candidate fundraising, endorsements, voter registration trends, and campaign organization will ultimately determine the nomination. Key uncertainties include whether Frazier can consolidate support among voters seeking an alternative to Case, and whether late-campaign developments or voter mobilization efforts shift the race dynamics before primary voting occurs.

Key factors:
- Ed Case's commanding 66% contract price indicates strong market confidence in his nomination, suggesting Frazier must overcome substantial structural advantages held by the front-runner
- The low absolute prices for both Frazier (4¢) and Keohokalole (27¢) combined approach Case's position, indicating market uncertainty about whether Case support is as durable as prices suggest
- Frazier's trading volume ($40 24h) is lower than Ed Case ($136 24h), potentially reflecting less developed market confidence or retail attention compared to the presumed front-runner
- The Democratic primary date and filing deadline will establish definitive candidate participation, with any late entrants or withdrawals materially altering competitive dynamics
- Local endorsements from Hawaii Democratic establishment figures and union organizations traditionally carry significant weight in determining nomination outcomes in the state

Contracts:
- Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district?: Jarrett Keohokalole — 27¢ Kalshi $175 (weight 100%)
- Will Ed Case be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district?: Ed Case — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Maxwell Frazier be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district?: Maxwell Frazier — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.085Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hi01d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Maxwell%20Frazier%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20Hawaii's%20first%20congressional%20district
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev