55% — Highest grossing movie in 2026
Leader: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 55% · Polymarket 55% · 4 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 11:12:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 37% probability reflects the market's assessment that a single film will generate more theatrical revenue than all others released in 2026. Two major films dominate current betting: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 68¢ and Toy Story 5 at 4¢ on Polymarket, suggesting significant confidence in Spider-Man's commercial performance. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether either tentpole will outpace competitors expected later in 2026, including potential releases from established franchises. The gap between venues (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket 36%) is minimal, indicating broad market consensus. Resolution hinges on actual box office performance through year-end, with major releases typically arriving in summer and holiday windows providing key data points to update expectations.

Key factors:
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day contract trading at 68¢ suggests market expects it to be the year's top earner, but this alone only accounts for roughly two-thirds of the 37% probability
- No film currently has dominant probability positioning; the highest individual contract is 68¢, indicating genuine uncertainty about which title will ultimately lead
- Trading volume on highest-grossing contracts ($825-$3,321 in 24h volume) is substantially lower than Netflix-specific contracts, suggesting limited conviction or smaller trader participation
- The May 4 Netflix contracts show heavy activity ($2,595 volume on Apex) but address a near-term specific event rather than full-year gross revenue
- 2026 still has 7+ months of releases remaining, meaning undisclosed or late-arriving blockbusters could significantly shift probabilities

Contracts:
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day — 55¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 15%)
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Toy Story 5 — 16¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 20%)
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday — 14¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 31%)
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie — 4¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 34%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T10:20:08.927Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev