25% — What will be the highest grossing movie in 2026?
Kalshi 19% · Polymarket 30% · 10 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:28:04 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 11pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 25%)
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day — 55¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 24%)
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie — 5¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 20%)
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday — 14¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 19%)
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?: Toy Story 5 — 17¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 11%)
- Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early?: Before election day 2026 — 8¢ Kalshi $102 (weight 1%)
- Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?: Before election day 2026 — 13¢ Kalshi $45 (weight 0%)
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?: Before September 1, 2026 — 50¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:11.508Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/highest-grossing-movie-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20be%20the%20highest%20grossing%20movie%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev