12% — What will be the highest grossing movie in 2026?
Kalshi 12% · 15 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 21:19:10 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? — 20¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 64%)
- Will Why Did I Get Married Again? be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? — 29¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 13%)
- Will Those Who Wish Me Dead be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $591 (weight 4%)
- Will The Whisper Man be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $581 (weight 4%)
- Will Untold Mr. T: I Pity The Fool be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $553 (weight 4%)
- Will Dune: Part Three have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday on Dec 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? — 81¢ Kalshi $523 (weight 4%)
- Will The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? — 41¢ Kalshi $249 (weight 2%)
- Will Turning Point: Generation 9/11 be #2 US Netflix Movie on Sep 21, 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $182 (weight 1%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-19T06:43:23.334Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/highest-grossing-movie-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20be%20the%20highest%20grossing%20movie%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev