23% — How high will CPI get this year
Leader: Above 4.2% at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 9 contracts · $12 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects an expectation that U.S. inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, will exceed 3.7% at some point during 2026. The high probability suggests market participants view this threshold as likely given current economic conditions, Fed policy trajectory, and recent inflation persistence. Upward pressure could come from labor market strength, energy prices, or supply-chain disruptions, while downward pressure might result from tighter monetary policy or cooling demand. The resolution will depend on actual CPI releases throughout the year, with monthly reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics providing the definitive data. The modest gap between the 3.7% and 3.8% contracts (97¢ vs 94¢) indicates moderate uncertainty about how much higher inflation might climb, suggesting traders see incremental increases as possible but not dramatic.

Key factors:
- Year-to-date CPI readings as of May 2026 establish the baseline; any monthly print above 3.7% would satisfy the contract
- Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and forward guidance shape expectations about inflation trajectory and demand management
- Energy commodity prices, particularly crude oil and natural gas, directly influence CPI components and can shift quickly on geopolitical or supply shocks
- Labor market conditions and wage growth persistence determine whether price pressures remain embedded in the economy
- Monthly CPI releases from BLS (typically mid-month for prior month data) represent the concrete measurement events that resolve contract uncertainty

Contracts:
- How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.2% — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.4% — 17¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 100%)
- How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.3% — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.5% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.6% — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.7% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.8% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How high will CPI get this year?: Above 4.9% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.807Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/highinflation
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20high%20will%20CPI%20get%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev