58% — Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 89° to 90° at 58% · Kalshi 58% · 4 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:41 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures the probability that the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach 79-80°F on April 21, 2026. At 43%, it reflects modest odds relative to the distribution of temperature outcomes traders expect for that date. The current pricing suggests traders see a meaningful chance of this range occurring, though cooler or warmer outcomes are also weighted substantially in the broader contract set. April weather in most temperate regions exhibits high day-to-day variability, and seasonal forecasts from meteorological services become more reliable only within 2-3 weeks of the target date. The resolution of this contract will depend entirely on the actual reported maximum temperature from the designated weather station on April 21, 2026. Historical temperature patterns, climate normal data, and approaching seasonal conditions will likely narrow uncertainty as the date draws closer. Key factors: - The 43% probability for 79-80°F sits between higher probabilities for 87-88°F (30¢) and 89-90°F (45¢), suggesting traders expect temperatures above this range more likely than below it - Historical April 21 temperature records and 30-year normals for the target location directly inform baseline expectations and seasonal patterns - Current contract volume ($1,335 in 24-hour volume for the leader) indicates active trading but relatively modest liquidity compared to weather derivatives on major benchmarks - The multi-outcome structure means this 79-80°F contract competes against five other temperature bands, with the top outcome (89-90°F) commanding less than half the probability space - Uncertainty will collapse sharply only when April 2026 arrives; probabilistic refinement depends on 7-14 day weather forecasts, which gain skill only in early April Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be 89-90° on Jun 26, 2026?: 89° to 90° — 58¢ Kalshi $946 (weight 31%) - Will the maximum temperature be 87-88° on Jun 26, 2026?: 87° to 88° — 20¢ Kalshi $872 (weight 29%) - Will the maximum temperature be 91-92° on Jun 26, 2026?: 91° to 92° — 18¢ Kalshi $566 (weight 19%) - Will the maximum temperature be <87° on Jun 26, 2026?: 86° or below — 3¢ Kalshi $620 (weight 21%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.124Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightatl Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%2079-80%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev