80% — Will the maximum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 79° or below at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 01:25:29 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates the chance that the maximum temperature on April 21, 2026 will fall between 50°F and 51°F at the tracked location. At 36%, this reflects moderate confidence but not a favorite outcome. The April 21 date is approximately 9.8 months away from today, so traders are working with long-range seasonal patterns and historical weather data rather than near-term forecasts. The estimate sits below other temperature ranges in the multi-outcome contract, suggesting cooler temperatures are less likely than readings in the 81–87°F range that dominate current trading volume. The key drivers are the seasonal baseline for late April at this location and variations in spring weather patterns—earlier warming trends would lower this probability, while cooler springs would increase it. Resolution depends on actual recorded temperature on April 21, 2026, making this contract highly sensitive to location-specific climate data. Key factors: - Historical April 21 high temperatures at this location establish the seasonal baseline—colder or warmer averages would shift this contract's probability - Spring temperature anomalies in 2026 (earlier warming or delayed cold) would move this outcome up or down as the date approaches - Trading volume concentration in 81–87°F ranges (combined ~41¢ implied probability) suggests market consensus favors warmer conditions over 50–51°F outcomes - The 9.8-month forecast horizon limits near-term model precision; long-range ensemble forecasts from spring 2026 will tighten probability estimates - Daily weather variance and tail-risk events (late freeze, arctic air) between now and April 21 will incrementally update traders' seasonal expectations Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be <80° on Jun 29, 2026?: 79° or below — 80¢ Kalshi $249 (weight 24%) - Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Jun 29, 2026?: 80° to 81° — 14¢ Kalshi $202 (weight 19%) - Will the maximum temperature be 86-87° on Jun 29, 2026?: 86° to 87° — 3¢ Kalshi $605 (weight 57%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.853Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightbos Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%2050-51%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev