48% — Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 94° or below at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:43:24 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract tracks whether the maximum temperature in a specific location will remain below 63°F on April 21, 2026. At 41% probability, markets are indicating this outcome is less likely than warmer alternatives, though still a meaningful possibility. The current pricing reflects expectations for late-spring weather patterns, where temperatures typically rise above this threshold in most regions. Key drivers of this probability include seasonal climatology for the location in question, any near-term weather system forecasts available at contract listing time, and the distribution of other temperature outcomes across the contract set. The resolution will depend on the actual recorded maximum temperature on April 21, 2026, which will be verified against official weather station data for the specified location. Uncertainty persists because seasonal forecasting at this timeframe remains inherently limited, and individual daily temperatures can deviate significantly from average conditions. Key factors: - The runner-up contract (<63°F) trades at 41%, while the leading contract (85-86°F) commands the same price, indicating broad disagreement about which temperature band is most likely - No contract for extremely low temperatures (<63°F) appears in the top volume metrics, suggesting traders assign relatively low conviction to cold outcomes despite the 41% price - April 21 falls in late spring for Northern Hemisphere locations, when temperatures typically climb above 63°F in temperate zones but remain cooler in high-altitude or northern regions - The contract structure is multi-outcome winner-take-all, so pricing reflects relative belief across six discrete temperature bands rather than continuous probability distribution - Resolution depends entirely on official recorded maximum temperature data for the specified location on April 21, 2026—no weather forecast issued today will remain reliable at that 10+ day horizon Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be <95° on Jun 26, 2026?: 94° or below — 48¢ Kalshi $375 (weight 29%) - Will the maximum temperature be 95-96° on Jun 26, 2026?: 95° to 96° — 39¢ Kalshi $572 (weight 45%) - Will the maximum temperature be 97-98° on Jun 26, 2026?: 97° to 98° — 11¢ Kalshi $328 (weight 26%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:51.718Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightdal Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3C63%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev