43% — Will the maximum temperature be  63-64° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader: 88° to 89° at 43% · Kalshi 43% · 4 contracts · $454 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:45:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that the maximum temperature will fall within the 63-64°F range on April 21, 2026 at a specified location. The current 38% level suggests this outcome is considered less likely than alternatives, possibly because late April weather typically produces higher temperatures or because historical patterns for that date favor different ranges. The main drivers are seasonal temperature norms for late spring and any emerging climate patterns that might shift April conditions warmer or cooler than average. The resolution will occur on April 21, 2026, when actual maximum temperature data becomes available. Until then, the probability may shift if longer-range forecasts are issued or if patterns similar to the target date emerge in preceding weeks.

Key factors:
- Historical maximum temperatures for April 21 at the target location compared to the 63-64°F range
- Seasonal warming trajectory in late April relative to earlier spring months
- Current market pricing across four contracts suggests the 63-64°F band ranks third or fourth among competing outcomes
- Distance to resolution date (approximately 10.5 months away) limits availability of actionable weather forecasts
- Runner-up contract at 31% indicates at least one competing temperature range is viewed as notably more probable

Contracts:
- Will the maximum temperature be 88-89° on Jun 29, 2026?: 88° to 89° — 43¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 18%)
- Will the maximum temperature be 86-87° on Jun 29, 2026?: 86° to 87° — 27¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 21%)
- Will the maximum temperature be 84-85° on Jun 29, 2026?: 84° to 85° — 15¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 5%)
- Will the maximum temperature be 90-91° on Jun 29, 2026?: 90° to 91° — 13¢ Kalshi $258 (weight 57%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.589Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightdc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%2063-64%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev