70% — Will the maximum temperature be  <72° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader: 92° to 93° at 70% · Kalshi 70% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market contracts on the maximum temperature expected in a specific location on May 31, 2026. The leading outcome of 91–92° carries 49% probability, with cooler outcomes (89–90°) at 27% and warmer outcomes (93–94°) at 15%. Temperature forecasts are driven by seasonal patterns, weather systems, and climate variability typical for late May in the region. Resolution depends on the official recorded maximum temperature on that specific date. Current pricing suggests moderate confidence in a warm but not extreme outcome, with meaningful uncertainty about whether conditions will trend cooler or hotter. Volume concentration in the leading contract reflects stronger conviction around the 91–92° band.

Key factors:
- The leading contract (91–92°) commands 49% of the implied probability, indicating traders expect warm but not peak-summer conditions for late May
- The price gap between the 91–92° contract (52¢) and 89–90° contract (27¢) suggests a shift toward warmer outcomes compared to cooler alternatives
- Trading volume is highest in the warmest plausible outcomes (89–94°), with minimal volume beyond 94°, indicating traders see extreme heat as unlikely
- Historical May 31 temperatures in the region and current atmospheric conditions would anchor baseline expectations for normal seasonal warming
- The resolution date (May 31, 2026) is approximately 1 month away, allowing weather models to sharpen forecasts but leaving room for system changes

Contracts:
- Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Jun 26, 2026?: 92° to 93° — 70¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 75%)
- Will the maximum temperature be 94-95° on Jun 26, 2026?: 94° to 95° — 21¢ Kalshi $246 (weight 13%)
- Will the maximum temperature be 90-91° on Jun 26, 2026?: 90° to 91° — 4¢ Kalshi $238 (weight 12%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.959Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "70% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/highthou
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3C72%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev