41% — Will the maximum temperature be 86-87° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 104° to 105° at 41% · Kalshi 41% · 4 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:45:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: The market assigns a 68% probability that June 22, 2026 will see a maximum temperature between 105–106°F at this location. This reflects market participants' collective forecast for peak heat on that specific date. The high probability is driven by historical temperature patterns for late June and current seasonal trends that favor elevated heat. Markets for nearby temperature ranges (103–104°F at 12¢ and 107–108°F at 16¢) show declining odds as temperatures move away from the central prediction, suggesting confidence in a warm but not extreme outcome. Resolution will occur on June 22, 2026, when the actual recorded maximum temperature is known and compared against the 105–106°F band. Temperature forecasts beyond 10–14 days typically carry larger error margins, so substantial probability shifts remain possible as the date approaches and shorter-range meteorological data becomes available. Key factors: - Historical maximum temperatures for this location on June 21–23 establish a baseline expectation; deviations suggest the current probability may be miscalibrated - Current atmospheric conditions and seasonal sea-surface temperatures influence medium-range forecast skill; anomalies in typical circulation patterns would raise or lower the odds of the 105–106°F band - The narrow 2-degree range (105–106°F) concentrates risk; a shift of just 2–3°F either direction moves probability to adjacent contracts, making precision critical - Forecast updates from National Weather Service and other meteorological models in the 10–14 days before June 22 will provide increasingly reliable temperature predictions, likely compressing remaining uncertainty - Regional weather systems (high-pressure domes, moisture patterns, cloud cover) 1–2 weeks before the date remain the primary driver of forecast revisions Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be 104-105° on Jul 13, 2026?: 104° to 105° — 41¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 35%) - Will the maximum temperature be 102-103° on Jul 13, 2026?: 102° to 103° — 29¢ Kalshi $694 (weight 15%) - Will the maximum temperature be <102° on Jul 13, 2026?: 101° or below — 22¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 42%) - Will the maximum temperature be 106-107° on Jul 13, 2026?: 106° to 107° — 5¢ Kalshi $375 (weight 8%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.462Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightlv Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%2086-87%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev