48% — Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 93° or below at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 4 contracts · $970 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:45:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects a 36% probability that the maximum temperature in the specified location will reach 88–89°F on June 7, 2026. The market is pricing in moderate heat for that date, with the 88–89° band as the modal outcome, while cooler temperatures below 86°F trade at only 11%. Current seasonal weather patterns, historical climate data for early June, and atmospheric conditions in the days leading up to June 7 will determine whether temperatures trend toward the cooler or warmer end of the range. The resolution hinges on the actual recorded maximum temperature on that specific date, which will be definitively settled by official weather station data. Market participants are balancing near-term forecasts against the inherent uncertainty in predicting conditions two weeks into the future. Key factors: - Historical temperature data for early June at the location shows whether 88–89°F represents a normal, above-normal, or below-normal outcome for that date - Current weather forecasts and ensemble models 5–14 days before June 7 will shift probabilities if they show high-pressure systems or heat domes building into the region - The runner-up contract at 32% (86–87°F) and lowest-priced outcome at 11% (<86°F) indicate market consensus that sub-86° conditions are unlikely, constraining downside scenarios - Official recorded maximum temperature on June 7, 2026, settles the contract winner; all other outcomes expire worthless and no partial credit applies - Trading volume concentration in the 88–89° band ($529 24h vol) versus cooler outcomes ($590 for <86°) suggests retail or algorithmic interest in both heat and cooler extremes Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be <94° on Jul 13, 2026?: 93° or below — 48¢ Kalshi $610 (weight 63%) - Will the maximum temperature be 94-95° on Jul 13, 2026?: 94° to 95° — 29¢ Kalshi $208 (weight 21%) - Will the maximum temperature be 96-97° on Jul 13, 2026?: 96° to 97° — 16¢ Kalshi $124 (weight 13%) - Will the maximum temperature be 98-99° on Jul 13, 2026?: 98° to 99° — 5¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 3%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.037Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightmin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%2071-72%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev