35% — Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 81° to 82° at 35% · Kalshi 35% · 5 contracts · $843 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:45:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates the probability that the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach 90–91°F on June 21, 2026, currently priced at 54% on Kalshi. The 54% probability reflects traders' view that this temperature range is slightly more likely than not, though substantial uncertainty remains. Temperature outcomes depend on seasonal weather patterns, local climate conditions, and any anomalies occurring in June. The main drivers of this probability are historical temperature data for that date and time of year, plus current climate forecasts as they become available closer to June 21. Resolution occurs when the actual maximum temperature is recorded; if it falls within the 90–91°F band, the contract settles at full value. Traders are also pricing alternatives ranging from below 88°F (3%) to 94–95°F (3%), suggesting mild consensus around the 88–91°F range with a median outcome near 90°F. Key factors: - The 54% price for 90–91°F is the highest among five mutually exclusive outcomes, with 88–89°F at 20% and all temperatures above 92°F totaling roughly 15% - Historical climatology for June 21 in this location and recent trend data would inform whether 90–91°F represents a typical, above-average, or below-average maximum - Current seasonal weather forecasts (available weeks to days before June 21) directly influence contract repricing; any heat wave or cooling pattern warnings would shift probability mass between bins - The 24-hour trading volume ($439 on the leader contract) is concentrated on the 90–91°F outcome, suggesting active disagreement or limited price discovery rather than consensus - All five outcomes are live contracts, meaning traders can express directional views: betting on hotter days (92°F+) or cooler days (<88°F) requires selling the 90–91°F contract Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be 81-82° on Jul 13, 2026?: 81° to 82° — 35¢ Kalshi $147 (weight 17%) - Will the maximum temperature be 83-84° on Jul 13, 2026?: 83° to 84° — 34¢ Kalshi $279 (weight 33%) - Will the maximum temperature be <81° on Jul 13, 2026?: 80° or below — 23¢ Kalshi $194 (weight 23%) - Will the maximum temperature be 85-86° on Jul 13, 2026?: 85° to 86° — 8¢ Kalshi $158 (weight 19%) - Will the maximum temperature be 87-88° on Jul 13, 2026?: 87° to 88° — 3¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 8%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.438Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightnola Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%2080-81%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev