32% — Will the maximum temperature be <65° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 90° to 91° at 32% · Kalshi 32% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 01:33:49 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This question asks whether the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach 88–89°F on June 5, 2026. The 41% probability reflects traders' assessment that this narrow temperature band is more likely than not to occur, with most alternative outcomes scattered across neighboring ranges (86–87°F at 26%, 90–91°F at 16%). Temperature outcomes depend on seasonal weather patterns, atmospheric conditions, and local geography. The resolution will occur on the specified date when the daily maximum is recorded and compared against the contract bounds. Traders are pricing in a warm but not extreme day, with the largest share of probability mass in the 86–91°F zone. Uncertainty remains significant because weather forecasts become less precise beyond 10–14 days, and small shifts in pressure systems or cloud cover can move daily highs by several degrees. Key factors: - The modal outcome (88–89°F) commands only 41% of total probability, meaning 59% of traders favor temperatures outside this band - The five contracts together cover a 7-degree range from below 86°F to 92–93°F, with the bulk of volume in the 86–91°F cluster - No single alternative outcome exceeds 30%, indicating genuine disagreement about the likely maximum rather than consensus with scattered bets - Historical climate data and seasonal norms for the location on June 5 will anchor baseline expectations - Trading volume is concentrated in the top two contracts ($409 and $336 per 24h), suggesting active price discovery for the most probable outcomes Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be 90-91° on Jun 26, 2026?: 90° to 91° — 32¢ Kalshi $277 (weight 13%) - Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Jun 26, 2026?: 92° to 93° — 24¢ Kalshi $339 (weight 17%) - Will the maximum temperature be 94-95° on Jun 26, 2026?: 94° to 95° — 14¢ Kalshi $144 (weight 7%) - Will the maximum temperature be <90° on Jun 26, 2026?: 89° or below — 12¢ Kalshi $738 (weight 36%) - Will the maximum temperature be 96-97° on Jun 26, 2026?: 96° to 97° — 6¢ Kalshi $557 (weight 27%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:51.440Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightokc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3C65%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev