55% — Will the maximum temperature be <93° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 109° to 110° at 55% · Kalshi 55% · 4 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:42 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects traders' expectations about whether the maximum temperature in an unspecified location will remain below 93°F on April 21, 2026—currently priced at 53% probability, indicating slightly better-than-even odds. However, the leading contracts show traders are focused on much higher temperatures (107–108°F) for June 3, 2026, suggesting the underlying question may reference that date instead. Temperature forecasts depend primarily on seasonal patterns, climate oscillations like El Niño or La Niña conditions, and local atmospheric circulation. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the actual temperature reading on the reference date. Until then, shifts in long-range weather models and updates to climate indices could alter trader expectations. Currently, the 107–108°F bin commands the highest trading volume and probability, reflecting consensus around a hot outcome rather than cooler conditions. Key factors: - The question targets April 21, 2026, but top trading activity clusters around June 3, 2026 forecasts at much higher temperature bands, creating ambiguity about the actual reference date and location - Long-range weather models and seasonal forecasts will be the primary information source updating trader beliefs over the next months - Current leader (107–108°F at 53%) and runner-up (34%) together account for 87% of implied probability, concentrating risk on a narrow outcome band - Historical volatility and typical daily temperature ranges for the reference location would inform the plausibility of each bounded bin - Shifts in ENSO phase or other climate oscillations between now and April–June 2026 could materially change base-case temperature expectations Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be 109-110° on Jun 26, 2026?: 109° to 110° — 55¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 21%) - Will the maximum temperature be 107-108° on Jun 26, 2026?: 107° to 108° — 25¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 28%) - Will the maximum temperature be 111-112° on Jun 26, 2026?: 111° to 112° — 19¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 38%) - Will the maximum temperature be 113-114° on Jun 26, 2026?: 113° to 114° — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.417Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightphx Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3C93%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev