43% — Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 92° to 93° at 43% · Kalshi 43% · 5 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:37 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract tracks whether the maximum temperature will reach 67-68°F on April 21, 2026 — a spring day in the Northern Hemisphere. The 44% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether conditions will be cool enough to fall into this specific narrow band. Temperature forecasts at that range depend heavily on jet stream positioning, the strength of any lingering cold air mass, and local atmospheric conditions 10 months ahead. The main drivers of the current price are seasonal climatology for late April (typically warmer across much of North America) and the inherent difficulty of precision temperature forecasting beyond a few days. Resolution occurs on April 21, 2026, when observed weather data will determine the exact high temperature for that day and settle the contract. Key factors: - April 21 historically trends warmer than winter months across most of North America, creating baseline pressure for temperatures above 67-68°F in many regions - The contract's narrow 2-degree band (67-68°) is tighter than typical seasonal variation, making any small shift in jet stream or moisture patterns meaningful to the outcome - Current contract pricing shows traders pricing the under-90° outcome at only 18¢, indicating elevated expectations for above-average heat on June 13, 2026 itself, potentially reflecting broader climate patterns - Weather data from April 2026 will be definitive and unambiguous; there is no room for interpretation or dispute once the day concludes - The 44% probability implies roughly even odds, suggesting the market sees material chance conditions favor this specific temperature band despite seasonal norms Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Jun 26, 2026?: 92° to 93° — 43¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 43%) - Will the maximum temperature be 94-95° on Jun 26, 2026?: 94° to 95° — 43¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 26%) - Will the maximum temperature be 96-97° on Jun 26, 2026?: 96° to 97° — 4¢ Kalshi $772 (weight 19%) - Will the maximum temperature be <92° on Jun 26, 2026?: 91° or below — 4¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 2%) - Will the maximum temperature be 98-99° on Jun 26, 2026?: 98° to 99° — 3¢ Kalshi $433 (weight 11%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.656Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightsatx Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%2067-68%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev