51% — Will the maximum temperature be 62-63° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 65° to 66° at 51% · Kalshi 51% · 5 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:43 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction represents the likelihood that the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach between 62-63°F on April 21, 2026. Currently priced at 43%, this reflects moderate confidence that this temperature range will occur. The price is influenced by seasonal weather patterns for late April and historical temperature distributions for this date. Warmer-than-average spring conditions would lower this probability, while cooler or more typical spring weather would increase it. The resolution will depend on actual recorded maximum temperatures on April 21, 2026, which cannot be known until that date arrives. Early spring weather trends and forecast models as mid-April approaches will be the primary drivers of probability changes before resolution. Key factors: - This is priced at 43%, meaning the 65-66°F outcome (34¢) is currently favored over the 62-63°F range, with cooler bands at 8¢ and 13¢ representing lower probability tails - Historical April 21st temperature data and normal seasonal averages for this location determine baseline expectations before any weather forecasting - Spring weather can shift significantly; sustained warmer trends or cooler patterns will predictably move this contract's price up or down as April approaches - The contract resolves on a specific date (April 21, 2026) with no ambiguity once actual temperature readings are recorded - Volume concentration in the 63-64°F band ($592 24h) and 65-66°F band ($513 24h) suggests most trader interest clusters around temperate outcomes rather than extremes Contracts: - Will the maximum temperature be 65-66° on Jun 26, 2026?: 65° to 66° — 51¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%) - Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Jun 26, 2026?: 67° to 68° — 23¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 13%) - Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Jun 26, 2026?: 63° to 64° — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 22%) - Will the maximum temperature be >68° on Jun 26, 2026?: 69° or above — 12¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%) - Will the maximum temperature be 61-62° on Jun 26, 2026?: 61° to 62° — 6¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 39%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.332Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightsea Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%2062-63%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev