46% — Will the maximum temperature be  >65° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader: 68° to 69° at 46% · Kalshi 46% · 5 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects expectations about maximum temperature on April 21, 2026 in a specific location. The 34% probability for 70–71° reflects distributed market opinion across five temperature bands, with most traders placing roughly equal weight across a narrow range from 66–73°. Historical weather patterns, seasonal norms for late April, and any available climate forecasts (typically reliable only 10–14 days out) drive current pricing. The outcome will be determined by actual atmospheric conditions and measurement on April 21, 2026—the only event that fully resolves the question. Until that date, traders adjust positions based on updated forecasts and anomalies in nearby weather patterns that might shift expectations higher or lower.

Key factors:
- The median-priced outcome (70–71° at 34%) occupies the middle of the five-band range, suggesting balanced uncertainty rather than consensus toward extreme temperatures
- Lower-temperature bands (66–67°) trade significantly cheaper (5¢) than mid-range outcomes, indicating traders assign materially lower probability to cooler April conditions
- The >73° outcome carries only 6¢ pricing despite being a valid result, showing broad market skepticism of exceptionally warm temperatures in late April
- Volume concentration in the 72–73° band ($1,014 in 24-hour volume) suggests active disagreement about whether outcomes skew warmer or cooler than the current leader
- April 21 sits in late spring for most Northern Hemisphere locations; seasonal climate data and any available extended forecasts (beyond 10 days prior) would anchor initial position-setting

Contracts:
- Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jun 26, 2026?: 68° to 69° — 46¢ Kalshi $962 (weight 28%)
- Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jun 26, 2026?: 66° to 67° — 22¢ Kalshi $609 (weight 17%)
- Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jun 26, 2026?: 70° to 71° — 18¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 42%)
- Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jun 26, 2026?: 64° to 65° — 7¢ Kalshi $360 (weight 10%)
- Will the maximum temperature be <64° on Jun 26, 2026?: 63° or below — 3¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.861Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hightsfo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20maximum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3E65%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev