4% — Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the Democratic nominee for HI-01
Kalshi 4% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-23 23:36:51 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Jarrett Keohokalole wins the Democratic primary for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. Keohokalole is currently positioned as a competitive candidate, trailing frontrunner Ed Case (51%) but significantly ahead of Ben Fatula (3%). The outcome depends primarily on primary election dynamics, endorsements, fundraising, and voter preference shifts in the months ahead. The Democratic primary election will occur during Hawaii's August 2026 primary date, which will definitively resolve this question by determining the actual nominee through voter results.

Key factors:
- Ed Case holds a 9-point probability lead over Keohokalole, suggesting Case maintains structural advantages or polling strength as the current frontrunner
- Keohokalole and Case together account for 93% of Democratic nominee probability, indicating these two are clearly the main contenders with minimal viable paths for other candidates
- Primary election timing is August 2026, providing approximately 2.5 months for campaign dynamics, fundraising totals, endorsements, and voter engagement to potentially shift candidate momentum
- Fundraising reports and FEC filings between now and the primary will provide objective data on relative campaign resources and donor support
- Early voting or pre-election polling conducted in Hawaii during summer 2026 could indicate shifting voter preferences before the primary vote occurs

Contracts:
- Will Ben Fatula be the Democratic nominee for HI-01?: Ben Fatula — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will Della Au Belatti be the Democratic nominee for HI-01?: Della Au Belatti — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T13:20:51.941Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hiprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jarrett%20Keohokalole%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20HI-01
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev