36% — Apr 2026 temperature increase
Leader: 1.10 to 1.16 at 36% · Kalshi 36% · 4 contracts · $375 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:47:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing the probability that June 2026's global temperature anomaly will fall between 1.10°C and 1.16°C above the pre-industrial baseline. The 50% probability on this outcome reflects genuine uncertainty about near-term climate variability. Temperature outcomes depend on the combined effect of underlying warming trends, natural oscillations like ENSO cycles, and volcanic activity. The market is currently tilted toward modest warming in that band rather than either more extreme heat (1.17–1.23°C) or cooler conditions (1.03–1.09°C). Final resolution will depend on official temperature datasets released by agencies like NASA GISS and NOAA, typically published within weeks after month-end. The runner-up outcome at 21% suggests traders see meaningful tail risk toward lower anomalies, while the highest-temperature band at 16% indicates less conviction about record-breaking heat in this specific month.

Key factors:
- Ocean temperature patterns and ENSO phase in mid-2026 will directly influence atmospheric heating; La Niña conditions historically cool global temperatures while El Niño warms them
- Volcanic aerosol loading and stratospheric optical depth as of June 2026 will partially offset greenhouse-gas-driven warming
- The underlying long-term warming trend has been approximately 0.18°C per decade, meaning baseline expectations shift measurably year-to-year
- Official temperature data source and methodology (NASA GISS, NOAA, Copernicus, or Berkeley Earth) will determine the exact anomaly value and which contract wins
- Market liquidity concentration on the 1.10–1.16°C band ($674 24h volume) suggests professional traders view that range as modal, though the 16¢ price on the warmest band ($1331 volume) reflects active hedging

Contracts:
- Jul 2026 temperature increase?: 1.10 to 1.16 — 36¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 3%)
- Jul 2026 temperature increase?: 1.17 to 1.23 — 35¢ Kalshi $340 (weight 91%)
- Jul 2026 temperature increase?: 1.04 to 1.09 — 4¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 2%)
- Jul 2026 temperature increase?: 1.24 to 1.30 — 3¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 4%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:51.504Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hmonthrange
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Apr%202026%20temperature%20increase
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev