21% — Apr 2026 temperature increase Kalshi 21% · 8 contracts · $904 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:56 UTC Why this matters: This 27% probability reflects the likelihood that April 2026 experienced an above-average temperature increase compared to historical baselines. The assessment hinges on two primary factors: actual April temperature readings as they accumulate and finalize, and how those readings compare to the specific baseline period established by each contract. Markets show material disagreement on extremes—some contracts price 54-55°F outcomes at 4 cents while 63-64°F outcomes trade at 97 cents—suggesting uncertainty about regional location and the specific metric being measured. The resolution date is imminent since April 2026 has already concluded, meaning official meteorological data releases and NOAA/weather service finalization of April temperature records will directly determine the outcome. Liquidity concentrates on near-normal temperature ranges rather than extreme scenarios, indicating moderate confidence in moderate departures from baseline. Key factors: - Official April 2026 mean, maximum, or minimum temperature data from NOAA or equivalent meteorological authority determines the numerator - The specific baseline period (e.g., 1951-1980, 1981-2010, or 20th century mean) against which the 'increase' is measured affects whether the threshold is met - Geographic location of the measurement station (regional variation in warming is substantial) is embedded in contract specifications but creates ambiguity across venues - Contracts pricing 54-55°F at 4 cents versus 63-64°F at 97 cents suggests wide disagreement on the expected distribution, indicating incomplete information about the exact measurement methodology - The 1-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (26%) is narrow, suggesting reasonable market convergence despite heterogeneous contract designs Contracts: - May 2026 temperature increase?: 1.03 to 1.09 — 14¢ Kalshi $677 (weight 75%) - May 2026 temperature increase?: 1.10 to 1.16 — 76¢ Kalshi $223 (weight 25%) - May 2026 temperature increase?: 1.17 to 1.23 — 6¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.03 to 1.09 — 20¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.02999 or below — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.10 to 1.16 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.17 to 1.23 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Jun 2026 temperature increase?: 1.24 to 1.30 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.651Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hmonthrange Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Apr%202026%20temperature%20increase Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev