3% — Will the heating oil close price be above 2.749  USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $513 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:07 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 104.99  USD/Bbl on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $104.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $513 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T16:20:13.154Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hoilw
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20heating%20oil%20close%20price%20be%20above%202.749%20%20USD%2FGal%20on%20Apr%2024%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev