22% — Will Conservative Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election Kalshi 22% · 4 contracts · $627 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-10-14 17:14:21 UTC Why this matters: This 20% probability indicates that markets assess a one-in-five chance the Conservative Party finishes third in the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election, behind the top two finishers. The Conservative position in this traditionally Labour-held urban seat reflects both their current national polling weakness and local historical performance. The main drivers of this probability are Labour's structural dominance in the constituency and the distribution of votes among multiple challengers. Reform UK markets at 43% for third place, suggesting fragmentation among centre-right and right-wing candidates could be decisive. The by-election date and actual candidacy announcements remain critical uncertainties—the timing and profile of Conservative candidate selection, combined with local campaign dynamics and tactical voting patterns, will significantly influence whether the party can secure a top-three finish or slip further down the ballot. Real-time polling releases and campaign momentum in the final weeks would provide the clearest signals for probability adjustment. Key factors: - Holborn and St Pancras is a heavily Labour-favoured urban constituency where the second and third-place finishes are typically highly competitive between non-Labour parties - Reform UK's higher third-place probability (43%) suggests market expectations that right-wing vote splitting could push Conservatives out of the top three - Local candidate quality, profile, and campaign resources will materially affect Conservative visibility and vote efficiency in a crowded field - Tactical voting behaviour among anti-Labour voters will determine whether Conservative votes concentrate on one challenger or disperse across multiple parties - The final 1-2 weeks before polling will likely see significant probability shifts as campaign momentum and local events become clear Contracts: - Will Conservative Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: Conservative Party — 48¢ Kalshi $466 (weight 74%) - Will Reform UK finish 3rd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: Reform UK — 32¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 16%) - Will Liberal Democrats finish 3rd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: Liberal Democrats — 5¢ Kalshi $60 (weight 10%) - Will Green Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?: Green Party — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-10-10T15:20:53.498Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, October 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/holbornplace3rd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Conservative%20Party%20finish%203rd%20in%20the%202026%20Holborn%20and%20St%20Pancras%20by-election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev