96% — Will the max temperature in Miami be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026 Leader: Washington DC at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 10 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:31 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates a 97% chance that Miami's maximum temperature will exceed 75°F on July 4, 2026. The high probability reflects historical weather patterns for South Florida in early July, when temperatures routinely exceed this threshold. Current market pricing suggests traders view this outcome as nearly certain, with comparable contracts for other major U.S. cities showing similarly high probabilities for southern locations (New Orleans and Oklahoma City both at 97%) and lower probabilities for northern cities like New York (86%) and Los Angeles (30%). The main factors affecting this estimate are typical summer heat patterns in South Florida and any exceptional cooling systems that develop in early July. Resolution occurs on July 4, 2026, when the National Weather Service reports Miami's official daily maximum temperature. Key factors: - Miami's July average high temperature is approximately 90°F, making 75°F well below historical norms for the date - Market prices for New Orleans and Oklahoma City are also priced at 97%, suggesting consistency in regional heat expectations across southern U.S. locations - Northern cities like New York (86%) and Los Angeles (30%) show dramatically lower probabilities, indicating geographic variation drives pricing rather than uniform seasonal bias - The contract resolves based on National Weather Service official maximum temperature readings, eliminating ambiguity in measurement methodology - Nine days of lead time before resolution date allows weather models to substantially refine forecasts, potentially shifting probabilities if anomalous cooling patterns emerge Contracts: - Will the max temperature in Washington DC be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Washington DC — 96¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 19%) - Will the max temperature in New York City be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: New York City — 95¢ Kalshi $436 (weight 6%) - Will the max temperature in Minneapolis be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Minneapolis — 93¢ Kalshi $432 (weight 6%) - Will the max temperature in Philadelphia be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Philadelphia — 91¢ Kalshi $848 (weight 12%) - Will the max temperature in Denver be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Denver — 91¢ Kalshi $246 (weight 4%) - Will the max temperature in Boston be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Boston — 75¢ Kalshi $216 (weight 3%) - Will the max temperature in Seattle be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Seattle — 73¢ Kalshi $223 (weight 3%) - Will the max temperature in Chicago be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Chicago — 50¢ Kalshi $375 (weight 5%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:51.750Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/holidaytmax Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20max%20temperature%20in%20Miami%20be%20above%2075%20degrees%20on%20Jul%204%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev