7% — Will the min temperature in Seattle be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026
Leader: San Francisco at 7% · Kalshi 7% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:40:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates an 8% chance that Seattle's minimum temperature will fall below 50 degrees Fahrenheit on July 4, 2026. Early July is typically warm in the Pacific Northwest, making sub-50 degree overnight lows uncommon for that date, which explains the low probability. The main drivers are seasonal weather patterns and any anomalous cold fronts that might move through the region in early July. The resolution occurs on July 4, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature will be recorded and verified against National Weather Service data. Comparable contracts for other major U.S. cities show similarly low probabilities (3-10%), suggesting market participants view a sub-50 degree minimum as unlikely across most population centers during early summer.

Key factors:
- Historical Seattle July temperatures show minimum readings typically between 50-55°F, making sub-50 outcomes rare but not unprecedented
- Current probability of 8% is notably higher than Dallas, NYC, Denver, and DC (3-5%), suggesting Seattle's marine climate creates marginally greater cool-night risk
- The specific threshold of 50°F is a meaningful weather boundary; accuracy depends on precise overnight low readings from official weather stations
- Resolution depends on verified National Weather Service data recorded on July 4, 2026, eliminating ambiguity once the date arrives
- Market pricing reflects typical climatology; significant movement would require credible weather forecasts indicating an unusual cold event 9+ days in advance

Contracts:
- Will the min temperature in San Francisco be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: San Francisco — 7¢ Kalshi $380 (weight 30%)
- Will the min temperature in Seattle be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Seattle — 5¢ Kalshi $643 (weight 51%)
- Will the min temperature in Denver be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Denver — 5¢ Kalshi $227 (weight 18%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-29T00:20:50.430Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/holidaytmin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20min%20temperature%20in%20Seattle%20be%20below%2050%20degrees%20on%20Jul%204%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev