95% — Will more than 650,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026
Leader: Above 750,000 units at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 6 contracts · $459 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 12:59:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing a 95% probability that Honey Deuces—a beverage sold at the US Open tennis tournament—will exceed 650,000 units sold in 2026. This reflects strong confidence in baseline demand, likely driven by the drink's established presence at the tournament and typical attendance levels. The probability drops significantly at higher thresholds: 77% for 750,000 units and 29% for 900,000 units, suggesting traders see limited upside beyond normal sales patterns. Resolution depends on the actual sales figures reported after the tournament concludes in September 2026, making final ticket sales, tournament weather, and vendor performance key determinants of outcome.

Key factors:
- US Open 2026 total attendance figures relative to historical averages will directly affect baseline concession sales volumes
- Honey Deuce pricing and per-capita purchasing rates compared to 2024-2025 tournament data will determine whether sales reach stated thresholds
- Tournament duration and scheduling (weather delays, extended matches) could increase or decrease total venue hours and sales opportunities
- Competitive beverage options and vendor inventory allocation may shift consumer preferences toward or away from Honey Deuces
- Official sales reporting from USTA or venue operators must be disclosed to definitively resolve the contract by the stated threshold amounts

Contracts:
- Will more than 750,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 750,000 units — 95¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 1%)
- Will more than 700,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 700,000 units — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will more than 800,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 800,000 units — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will more than 850,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 850,000 units — 77¢ Kalshi $142 (weight 31%)
- Will more than 650,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 650,000 units — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will more than 900,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026?: Above 900,000 units — 6¢ Kalshi $311 (weight 68%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T12:21:14.661Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/honeydeuce
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20more%20than%20650%2C000%20Honey%20Deuces%20be%20sold%20at%20the%20US%20Open%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev