95% — Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28 million funded customers in 2026 Leader: Above 4.6 million at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 18 contracts · $989 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:08 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing an 88% probability that Robinhood will report at least 28 million funded customers by end of 2026, with tighter contract bands showing 86% confidence they'll exceed 28.2 million. This matters because customer growth is a core metric for retail brokerage valuations and operational scale. The current level reflects Robinhood's recent customer acquisition trajectory—the firm reported 23.2 million funded customers in Q4 2024, requiring roughly 2.3 million net additions through year-end 2026 to hit 28 million. Upward pressure comes from sustained retail interest and broader market engagement; downward pressure would stem from economic slowdown reducing new account openings or elevated churn. Resolution depends entirely on Robinhood's official 2026 year-end earnings disclosure, typically released in early 2027. The steep drop-off in contract prices above 28.6 million suggests markets view growth beyond that threshold as unlikely rather than routine. Key factors: - Robinhood added approximately 4.1 million funded customers in 2024; hitting 28 million would require a 2024-like growth rate sustained into 2026 - Market contraction or recession could depress new account creation and increase customer inactivity, moving the outcome below threshold - The 88% price assumes continued retail participation; a major market correction in 2026 could reshape customer growth expectations - Robinhood's competitive positioning against Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and others affects market share capture and retention rates - Resolution is binary and verified at year-end 2026 via official investor filings, eliminating ambiguity about measurement Contracts: - Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 4.6 million gold subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.6 million — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 4.8 million gold subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.8 million — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 5 million gold subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 5 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.8 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 28.8 million — 82¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 20%) - Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $50 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $50 billion — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 5.2 million gold subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 5.2 million — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above $55 billion event contracts total trading volume in fiscal 2026?: Above $55 billion — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 5.4 million gold subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 5.4 million — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:48.918Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hooda Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Robinhood%20Markets%20Inc.%20report%20Above%2028%20million%20funded%20customers%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev