25% — Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: Above 50 at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 8 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-26 09:38:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 68% probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz will exceed 40 between July 2025 and January 2027. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and shipping traffic; transit volumes serve as a barometer for regional stability and petroleum market conditions. The current probability reflects expectations that shipping activity will remain near or above historical averages during the period, despite geopolitical risks and sanctions dynamics in the Middle East. Market pricing shows declining probability at higher thresholds (53% above 50 calls, 35% above 90 calls), suggesting traders expect moderate traffic rather than surge conditions. Resolution hinges on actual IMF PortWatch data releases during the evaluation window, with key drivers including escalation or de-escalation of regional tensions, global energy demand, and alternative routing decisions by shipping operators. Key factors: - IMF PortWatch historical baseline: establish whether 40 transits per 7-day period represents above-average, typical, or below-average traffic to contextualize the 68% probability - Geopolitical risk events: any new sanctions, military incidents, or shipping attacks in the region between now and January 2027 that could force route changes or temporarily reduce traffic - Global oil demand trends: changes in crude consumption and refining activity drive volume through the Strait; economic recession or demand destruction would pressure the metric downward - Alternative routing adoption: degree to which operators use Suez Canal alternatives or bypass routes affects whether Hormuz volumes maintain or contract below 40 - Data quality and measurement: confirm that IMF PortWatch methodology remains consistent throughout the evaluation period and that data availability does not create gaps in the 7-day moving average calculation Contracts: - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 50 — 25¢ Kalshi $590 (weight 8%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 40 — 22¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 49%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 60 — 19¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 16%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 70 — 10¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 19%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 80 — 7¢ Kalshi $187 (weight 2%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 90 — 3¢ Kalshi $286 (weight 4%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 100 — 3¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 1%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 110 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 110 — 3¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-26T09:20:51.991Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hormuzavg Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%207-day%20moving%20average%20of%20transit%20calls%20through%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20as%20reported%20by%20the%20IMF%20PortWatch%20be%20above%2040%20after%20July%206%2C%202025%20and%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev