31% — Will July 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)
Kalshi 31% · 3 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:47:10 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract resolves based on which single day between July 6-12 records the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint. The 14% probability for July 10 reflects relatively even distribution across the week, with no day commanding overwhelming odds. Transit volumes through the strait fluctuate based on shipping schedules, port congestion, geopolitical events, and weather patterns. July 10 sits in the middle of the measurement window, neither advantaged by typical week-start clustering nor disadvantaged by weekend effects. The contract resolves definitively once official transit data becomes available post-week, making this primarily a question of predicting routine maritime traffic patterns rather than rare events. Current low trading volume across all daily contracts suggests limited conviction among traders about any particular day's dominance.

Key factors:
- Historical shipping patterns show whether midweek days (July 9-10) typically exceed early-week transit volumes
- Scheduled port maintenance or reported congestion at major Gulf terminals during this specific week
- Geopolitical developments affecting transit risk premiums or voluntary routing decisions by shipping companies
- Weather conditions in the strait during July 9-10 relative to adjacent days
- Current order books and vessel scheduling data for major shipping lines operating through the corridor

Contracts:
- Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?: July 6 — 11¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 39%)
- Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?: July 7 — 77¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 33%)
- Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?: July 8 — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 28%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-09T21:20:50.854Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hormuzmax
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20July%2010%20be%20the%20day%20with%20the%20most%20transit%20calls%20through%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20(7%2F6%20-%207%2F12)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev