86% — Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027 Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 9 contracts · $425K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 07:38:04 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 43% chance that ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz will average 60 or more per day over a 7-day period at some point before April 1, 2027. The probability reflects near-term uncertainty about whether transit volumes will reach this threshold soon, given that current weekly data shows mixed signals—some contracts pricing near-term achievement (May–June) at very low odds (5–38%), while longer-dated resolution points suggest modest confidence overall. The main factors are geopolitical tension in the region, which can disrupt shipping patterns, and seasonal shipping demand cycles. Resolution depends entirely on IMF PortWatch data releases, which measure actual daily transits; the next critical observation window is the upcoming weeks in May and June 2026, where contract pricing suggests skepticism about near-term volume spikes. Key factors: - Current 7-day moving average transit levels relative to 60 calls/day threshold; near-term contracts (May 15, June 1) price at 5–15% suggesting recent data below 60 - Geopolitical incidents or sanctions affecting regional shipping routes could abruptly alter transit volumes either upward (rerouting) or downward (disruption) - Seasonal shipping demand patterns and maintenance schedules that influence typical Hormuz transit frequencies throughout the year - IMF PortWatch reporting methodology and data lag; verification depends on actual published figures for consecutive 7-day periods - Regional tensions or military activity that could trigger insurance premium spikes, thereby deterring or redirecting shipping traffic through the Strait Contracts: - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 86¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 4%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 84¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 0%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 75¢ Kalshi $35K (weight 8%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 71¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 1%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 71¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 1%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 63¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 3%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 57¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 6%) - Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 48¢ Kalshi $167K (weight 39%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-15T07:20:52.848Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hormuznorm Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%207-day%20moving%20average%20of%20transit%20calls%20through%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20as%20reported%20by%20the%20IMF%20PortWatch%20be%20above%2060%20before%20April%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev