5% — 80: Above 80
Kalshi 5% · 2 contracts · $9K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 05:51:03 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents a 7% probability that at least one of four diverse outcomes will occur before early July 2026: Strait of Hormuz transit activity exceeds 60 calls, Bitcoin reaches $100,000, Bitcoin reaches $200,000, or the U.S. federal government acquires a stake in Spirit Airlines. The low probability reflects that these are largely independent events with different timelines and drivers. The transit contracts dominate trading volume and depend on geopolitical stability in the Middle East, while cryptocurrency thresholds hinge on market sentiment and adoption. The Spirit Airlines contract carries minimal liquidity. The primary catalysts include IMF PortWatch data releases (for maritime traffic), Bitcoin price discovery through Q2 2026, and any aviation industry restructuring announcements. Most contracts resolve by early July, making this a near-term gauge of market expectations across unrelated sectors.

Key factors:
- Strait of Hormuz transit volumes tracked by IMF PortWatch remain above 60 calls on the 7-day average through May 31, 2026, or fail to reach that threshold
- Bitcoin's spot price reaches or exceeds $100,000 USD before July 1, 2026, reflecting sustained market valuation increases
- U.S. federal government initiates or announces an equity stake acquisition in Spirit Airlines before the resolution date
- Current Bitcoin price level versus contract strike prices, with contract pricing at 6¢ suggesting less than 10% implied probability for $100k target
- Trading volume concentration on Hormuz transit contract ($367k 24h) versus minimal volume on Spirit Airlines ($28) indicates market conviction differences across outcomes

Contracts:
- Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?: Above $200000 — 3¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 95%)
- Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines?: Spirit Airlines — 6¢ Kalshi $449 (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T05:20:49.406Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/hormuztrafficw
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=80%3A%20Above%2080
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev